October jobs numbers show surprising strength - unemployment drops to 6.9%

In a surprise turn of events, the October Labour Force Survey out today showed that Canada’s employment increased by 67,000 jobs, putting the unemployment rate back to 6.9 per cent. The unemployment increased to 7.1 per cent for August and stayed there in September.

The majority of the jobs were in Ontario, which increased by 55,000, and Newfoundland and Labrador, which increased by 4,400. On the other end of the spectrum, both Manitoba and Nova Scotia saw declines (-4,000 and -4,400 respectively).

As for the type of jobs, the majority were part-time, and in sectors like wholesale and retail trade, as well as transportation and warehousing, information, culture and recreation, and utilities.

The construction sector lost 15,000 jobs, which isn’t great news for our national housing crunch.

Private sector employment rose by 73,000 jobs, while public sector employment remained stable.

While this is good news for our economy (job gains are always better than job losses), the unemployment rate of 6.9 per cent is still much higher than we’d like to see. Back in January of 2023 the unemployment rate was 5.1 per cent, but since then it has been steadily increasing up to the high of 7.1 per cent for August and September.

After its quarter per cent rate cut last week, most economists expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to pause now and assess how the Liberal budget, announced a few days ago, will impact the economy. However, the budget will first need to pass through parliament, which isn’t guaranteed due to the Liberal minority government. So far it’s survived 2 votes which would have triggered a ‘non confidence’ scenario and led us into an early federal election. However, the final expected vote to actually pass the budget (and any amendments) will likely happen on November 17th.